To enhance students' and faculty members’ understanding of China’s current economic landscape and future trends while strengthening their professional  analysis skills, the Faculty of Finance of the City University of Macau hosted a financial seminar on 23rd January 2025 at the Ho Yin Conference Center on the Taipa campus. The event featured Professor Qiu Xiaohua, Director of the University’s Institute for Economic Research, as the speaker. His seminar, titled "China’s Economy: 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook — Observing and Prospecting China's Economic Direction from Five Dimensions," provided an in-depth economic analysis and policy insights for both academic and industry professionals. Distinguished guests in attendance included Dean Cheung Wai Kong Adrian and Associate Dean Khong, Yueng Wah Eva of the Faculty of Finance. 

Professor Qiu began by reviewing China’s economic performance in 2024. He highlighted that despite multiple challenges—including an aging population, deep structural adjustments in the real estate sector, high debt levels, and geopolitical tensions—China’s economy still achieved an annual growth rate of 5%, supported by a series of macroeconomic policies. The country’s GDP exceeded RMB 134.9 trillion, successfully meeting the projected targets set at the beginning of the year and marking a solid step forward in China’s modernization efforts. Professor Qiu particularly emphasized the central government’s proactive responses, including a series of policy measures introduced since September aimed at stabilizing growth. These measures—such as stock market support, real estate stabilization, consumer stimulus, and social welfare enhancements—quickly restored market confidence. As a result, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in expansion territory for three consecutive months, signaling a steady economic recovery. By the fourth quarter, the economy had rebounded, recording a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4%, a hard-earned achievement given the complexities of the domestic and global landscape. 

Looking ahead to 2025, Professor Qiu analyzed the potential opportunities and challenges China’s economy may face through five key dimensions. First, the economic policies of the new U.S. administration could create significant external shocks for both the global and Chinese economies. To mitigate these uncertainties, China must diversify its export markets while increasing domestic demand support to maintain economic balance. Second, in response to external shocks, China is expected to adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2025. These measures aim to unlock domestic demand potential and sustain economic growth. However, the extent, direction, and pace of these policies could have varying impacts on the economy and financial markets. Third, the ability of China’s real estate sector to stabilize and recover remains a crucial factor, influencing investment, consumption, employment, local government finances, and related industries. Fourth, the transition from traditional industries to emerging sectors is another critical factor in forecasting China’s economic trajectory. While traditional industries are losing momentum, emerging industries—including advanced manufacturing, new energy, and artificial intelligence—are developing rapidly and expected to become major drivers of economic growth. However, the necessary adjustments in traditional sectors still pose short-term economic challenges. Fifth, shifts in global geopolitics will continue to have a profound impact on both the global economy and China’s economic trajectory, making it a crucial factor in future economic assessments. 

Professor Qiu emphasized that certainty and uncertainty are intertwined in 2025. He advised that in an unpredictable environment, China should focus on strengthening internal stability by advancing technological innovation, fostering new growth drivers, and implementing effective policy adjustments and structural reforms. These efforts will be critical in ensuring the quality and resilience of China’s economic development. 

The seminar provided valuable insights and in-depth analysis, offering attendees a fresh perspective on China’s economic landscape and future direction. Students actively engaged in discussions and expressed that the session not only gave them a clearer understanding of macroeconomic trends but also inspired new directions for their research. Staffs and students at the City University of Macau extended their gratitude to Professor Qiu for traveling from Beijing to deliver his insightful seminar. Moving forward, the Faculty of Finance and the Institute of Economic Research will continue to organize high-quality academic exchange events, contributing to in-depth economic research in Macau and the Greater Bay Area while supporting the region’s sustainable economic transformation and long-term development.