The Faculty of Finance at the City University of Macau held a financial lecture series on September 12, 2024, at the Ho Yin Convention Centre on the Taipa campus. The lecture featured Mr. Liu Pengfei, Head of the Treasury Business Department of the Agricultural Bank of China (Macau Branch) and an internal trainer at the head office, as the keynote speaker. His topic was “Global Macroeconomic and Policy Outlook.” Guests attending this seminar include Dean Adrian Cheung and Associate Dean Eva Khong of the Faculty of Finance, City University of Macau.

Mr. Liu delivered a lecture that closely followed international trends and changes in the financial market, combining macro and micro perspectives, theory and practice. His clear, lively, and humorous presentation was met with applause and received unanimous praise. The lecture was divided into four parts: global macroeconomic and policy analysis, analysis and interpretation of China’s economy and policies, analysis and interpretation of Macau’s economy and policies, and future market outlook. The lecture aimed to explore the current global economic situation and how China should better face the future.

First, Mr. Liu discussed the current U.S. economic situation, based on the current global situation and combined with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycles, deeply analyzing the causes and expected trends of this rate hike, and explaining what bank’s response measures are in asset, liability allocation, and liquidity management at different stages of the rate hike cycle. In his global economic analysis, Mr. Liu noted that inflation in major economies slowed in the first half of 2024, global government bond yields fell, and it is expected that major central banks, except the Bank of Japan, will gradually ease monetary policy.

Secondly, Mr. Liu expressed optimism about China’s economic situation. According to publicly available data, the quarterly trend continues to improve, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts will do more good than harm to China’s economy. As regards Macau’s economy, he predicted that Macau’s GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2025. In terms of policy, Mr. Liu mentioned Macau’s “1+4” moderate diversification development strategy, where “1” is to promote diversified development of comprehensive tourism and leisure, and “4” is to continuously promote the development of four key industries: traditional Chinese medicine and health, modern finance, high technology, convention and exhibition commerce, and cultural sports. The idea is to  build an industrial structure that is sustainable and suitable for Macau’s reality, while continuously advancing Macau’s coordinated development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Finally, when discussing the future market outlook, Mr. Liu stated that global economic growth will remain stable in the second half of 2024, and inflation may continue to moderate. In the second half of 2024, China’s economic growth will also remain stable, and the 20th Central Committee’s third plenary session will provide direction for further comprehensive deepening of reforms and promoting Chinese-style modernization over the next 5 -10 years. In closing, Mr. Liu reviewed and analyzed the crises associated with past Federal Reserve rate hike cycles. Looking ahead, he added that whether this Federal Reserve rate hike cycle will have a profound impact on the global economy will be a topic worth exploring.

Students actively asked questions during the lecture, and Mr. Liu patiently answered them, providing an opportunity for the faculty and students of the City University of Macau to gain an in-depth understanding of global economic policies and analysis. The Faculty of Finance at the City University of Macau sincerely thanks Mr. Liu Pengfei, Head of the Treasury Business Department of the Agricultural Bank of China Macau Branch, for his wonderful sharing. The participating students said that they benefited greatly from the lecture and that it also provided significant help for their future research directions. The Faculty of Finance will continue to hold such events to further strengthen the combination of financial theory and practice, committed to cultivating talents with a modern financial vision.